The Dollar - Steve Saunders Goldwing Forums
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post #1 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 11:04 AM Thread Starter
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An interesting read.

The post is not meant in any way to be inflammatory, only informative, because normally where goes the US$, goes the currency of the country I live in, so it will affect my country as well as those to the south.





http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...o-a-close.html
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post #2 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 11:15 AM
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That theory has been put forward many times since at least the 70's. It makes an interesting report every few years but that's about all.
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post #3 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 11:19 AM
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Well you can only print so much with nuthin behind it before reaction sets in I see we hit par this AM I fully expect to be at $1.30 by next fall
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post #4 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 12:40 PM
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Theories are a dime a dozen. Where were all the geniuses when the sub prime loans were being doled out?

In hindsight a grade six math student could have predicted the result.




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post #5 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 08:36 PM Thread Starter
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nobbie wrote:
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Theories are a dime a dozen. Where were all the geniuses when the sub prime loans were being doled out?

In hindsight a grade six math student could have predicted the result.


Busy making money
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post #6 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 08:51 PM Thread Starter
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GWNorman wrote:
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That theory has been put forward many times since at least the 70's. It makes an interesting report every few years but that's about all.
The difference being the unemployment rates were never as high as they are today.

Anytime the Government borrows to increase stimulus in the US, the population rushes straight back to the Dollar stores and Walmart etc etc, one can't blame them, that is what competition is all about, we all want our money to go as far as we can make it

A revolving door which more $$ go out than ever come back in.

Hopefully things can change, although it looks like it might be forced upon the populace.

The world isn't like it was in the 70's, 80's or 90's.
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post #7 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 09:00 PM
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...although it looks like it might be forced upon the populace.

...might be?


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post #8 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 09:11 PM
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tricky wrote:
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The world isn't like it was in the 70's, 80's or 90's.
It isn't like it was in the '50s either. That was the last period of time when I remember that a 5 year old parts catalog listing a resistor at 13 cents was still accurate.

The early middle '60s started the demise of stability and we (the world) has never regained it.

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post #9 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 09:50 PM
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AZgl1500 wrote:
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The early middle '60s started the demise of stability and we (the world) has never regained it.
...the Hippies?

Some would agree that the Hippies started something rolling alright...


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post #10 of 17 (permalink) Old 11-05-2010, 10:57 PM
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The larger question is what would one replace the dollar with? The Euro is struggling due to all the same issues the dollar faces. The Japanese yen has been in stagnation for two decades. The Chinese have funded much of their development on funny money backed by the government; while the "official" debt of China is around 15~20%, many leading banks believe the "hidden" debts underlie a debt ratio of 90~130% of their GNP. So the Chinese are not (despite all the alarmist reports) going to replace the dollar anytime soon either. Russia's economy is based primarily on natural resources (oil, gas, etc) which cannot provide long term stability. The only other economies large enough to even offer an alternative are India or Brazil; both suffer from huge populations that represent huge economic, social, and environmental challenges which will effectively prevent them from growing to a "world" power.

The Europeans probably have the best chance, since they have the political foresight and intestinal fortitude to reduce their debt loads (austerity plans), but as soon as these are achieved two issues come to the fore: first, there will be a strong push to restore many socialist policies, secondly, most European nations have an abundance of political and financial ties to the United States, and therefore have vested interest in keeping the dollar around.

Are there issues with the dollar? Certainly. But while one can easily run around stating the obvious (and get good press), the basic reality is there really isn't a viable alternative around, which is why bankers may hedge - but the dollar will still hold sway.

Not stating this just because I'm on this side of the pond. Just stating economic reality.


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